Are You Lying to Yourself About Your Finances? Find Out.
Optimism bias is invisible but expensive. This test reveals the gap between what you BELIEVE and what's LIKELY to happen—so you can act before it's too late.
Take the Calibration TestFor Founders, CEOs, CFOs & Board Members
What Is the Optimism Audit?
The Optimism Audit is a psychological calibration test for founders. It doesn't just measure your numbers—it reveals how accurately YOU perceive reality versus how deluded you might be.
of founders overestimate their success odds
believed their failure chance was literally ZERO
average planning fallacy in founder projections
Why Optimism Bias Is Expensive
Cash Blindness
You think you have longer runway than you do. When reality hits, it's too late to act.
Misjudged Growth
Your growth projections are likely 30-50% too optimistic. That's not guesswork—that's data.
Customer Risk
You assume customers will pay on time. A single delay can trigger a cash crisis.
Decision Delay
Optimism makes you wait too long on tough decisions. Every week costs capital.
Scientific Backing
Cooper, Woo & Dunkelberg (1988)
81% of founders rated their success odds higher than similar businesses
Same Study
33% of founders estimated their probability of failure at literally ZERO
Camerer & Lovallo (1999)
Overconfidence persists even when founders know the actual base rates
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Optimism Audit?
It's a free psychological calibration test that measures the gap between your financial expectations and what's statistically likely. It reveals your "delusion score" – how much you might be overestimating your runway.
Who is this for?
Founders, CEOs, CFOs, and board members who want an objective view of their company's financial reality.
How long does it take?
Just 2-3 minutes. You enter 6 simple financial data points, and our algorithm instantly calculates your delusion score.
Is my data secure?
Yes. Your data is encrypted and never shared with third parties. See our Privacy Policy for details.
What does my score mean?
0-15% = Well-Calibrated. 16-30% = Moderately Optimistic. 31-50% = Dangerously Deluded. 51%+ = Critical Delusion.
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Part of the Early Warning Index ecosystem of free tools for founders.
About Early Warning Index
This tool is provided by Early Warning Index, a business consulting service helping companies identify risks and avoid failure.
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